Ceasefire in Libya – a historic milestone or just another failed attempt?

On August 21, the Units of the Government of National Accord (GNA) announced a ceasefire across Libya, calling for the creation of a demilitarized zone in the city of Sirte, a site of frequent fighting. The oil blockade imposed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who heads the Libyan National Army (LNA), should also come to an end. Fayez al-Sarraj, the leader of GNA, called for presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2021, which he regards as a prerequisite for long-term peace. He also called for the elections to be held on a constitutional basis and enjoy „the consensus of all Libyans“. According to al-Sarraj, the ceasefire aims to restore sovereignty over the Libyan territory and the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries. Together with the GNA’s proposal, the ceasefire was also announced by Aguila Saleh who heads a rival parliament in the east of Libya. Although this progress could be viewed positively, the sustainability of the ceasefire is uncertain. Haftar’s troops have already labeled GNA’s efforts as a „marketing stunt“. According to LNA spokesman, Ahmed Mismari, the reason for the untrustworthiness of the ceasefire is an increasing number of GNA units and their further mobilization. He is convinced that these steps are intended to strengthen their position which would further allow them to attack, with Turkish support, the city of Sirte. Mismari did not mention the declaration of a ceasefire by representatives of the eastern Libyan parliament. This may be due to changes in the representation of the eastern part of the country, as Saleh’s reputation, unlike Haftar’s, is rising. The ceasefire was also welcomed by the representatives of the UN and the European Union, which believe in a favorable development. Even the Egyptian president Abd al-Fattah as-Sísí, who supported Haftar, also reportedly welcomes the ceasefire. This is surprising since the Egyptian parliament approved the deployment of its troops outside the country several weeks ago, implying authorization to send the army to Libya. As a result of the ceasefire, foreign intervention, which could bring further ambiguities to the Libyan conflict, could be avoided. But Saleh is not proposing the demilitarization of the city of Sirte, rather the establishment of a new government in the city, which was only recently freed from the so-called Islamic State. It is the agreement on the administration of the city of Sirte that will be key to determining further developments. The coming months will show whether the ceasefire can be turned into reality. Currently, the GNA has enough power to hold Haftar’s forces at bay and the resumption of fighting could be too risky for Haftar. However, the Tobruk Parliament, which announced the ceasefire, must be aware of Haftar’s reluctance to end the conflict by diplomatic means. The situation may also be complicated by the strategic interests of other countries. Turkey, which aims to acquire natural resources, has only recently found itself in a dispute with Egypt over gas fields. The ceasefire is also threatened by the presence of Russian mercenaries, whose activities increase the possibility of further escalation. (Feri Tóth) Photo: UNMAS/Maximilian Dyck #ახალიამბები #პოლიტიკა #ლიბია #ახლოაღმოსავლეთი #აფრიკა #სამოქალაქოომი #middleeast #libya #news #politics #opinion #civilwar